New Labour guru has second thoughts – sort of

Do you remember how confidently the media pundits and New Labour elder statesmen told us that electing Corbyn as leader would be a disaster? It is worth recalling what they said and how, in the light of the general election 2017 their political judgement has been clear shown to be at some remove from reality.

Take the case of David Blunkett. He has been around the block a few times:

  • Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (6 May 2005 – 2 November 2005)
  • Home Secretary {8 June 2001 – 15 December 2004)
  • Secretary of State for Education and Employment (2 May 1997 – 8 June 2001)
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Employment (20 October 1994 – 2 May 1997)
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Health (18 July 1992 – 20 October 1994)
  • Member of Parliament for Sheffield Brightside (1987–2010)
  • Leader of the Sheffield City Council (1980–1987)

Continue reading “New Labour guru has second thoughts – sort of”

Comparing the 2017 election to previous ones

Myths abound in politics. This is because most people get their political information second or third hand, or worse. So it is always worth reminding ourselves of some basic facts.

For example Labour “moderates” often refer to Labour’s 1983 election with Michael Foot as the lowest point reached by Labour in the post war period. This is blamed on a manifesto which, it is alleged, was far too left-wing. Few of the people making this claim have actually read that manifesto but that is how myths develop. Furthermore, the simple fact is that it was not Labour’s lowest point in terms of support from the electorate as a whole. That dubious honour must be claimed by Gordon Brown (see the graph below). Continue reading “Comparing the 2017 election to previous ones”

General Election 2017 – Hounslow

Ruth Cadbury

Both candidates for the Hounslow parliamentary constituencies retained their seats for Labour. Ruth Cadbury not only held the Brentford and Isleworth constituency with an increased majority but with a massive increase in the Labour vote of 13.6%. Labour was ahead of the Tories in every single ward.

Ruth got 57.4% of the total vote in a higher than average turnout (72.4%). Her majority of 12,182 transformed her previous fragile majority of 465. Brentford & Isleworth now has a solid Labour majority. It was also good to note that the share of the vote for the conservative candidate, Mary McLeod, went down by 5.3%. Winning a majority 12,182 was the result of hard work and retaining it will depend on continuing that work. Continue reading “General Election 2017 – Hounslow”

Removing the Tory majority was a major step forward but we need a Labour Government

 

Politics looks like fun when you think victory is assured – but when reality bites …

Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn defied the predictions of the pundits. In the changed situation so many things are up for grabs. The myth that electoral advance is only possible when you hug the centre (or rather, the centre as defined by the rich and powerful and those who serve them) has been destroyed. So this is an important moment for British politics. Continue reading “Removing the Tory majority was a major step forward but we need a Labour Government”

A great result for Labour: British politics goes into the melting pot

Corbyn in the Commons – now the backstabbing must stop

What a night! Labour’s vote exceeded all expectations. The long-predicted Labour electoral wipe-out failed to materialise. On the contrary Labour increased its vote considerably. Even the increased number of Labour MPs (+29) doesn’t tell the whole story. Just consider some basic statistical facts.

The poll of polls was spot on and Labour even got got 40.1% of the vote (as against the Tory 42.7%). Labour gained seats in England, Scotland and Wales. Continue reading “A great result for Labour: British politics goes into the melting pot”

The polls: Labour nudges still closer to the Tories

BBC poll of polls as of 4th June

The enormous gap in the polls at the start of the election, along with the predictions of a wipe out for Labour, has gone. The more exposure Labour gets the better its position. When the public hears directly from Labour what it thinks and what is plans are, rather than getting its views from the political commentariat, its position improves.

The BBC website reported

Clearly, the discrepancies between the polling companies are very large. And that obviously makes it hard to draw firm conclusions.

Survation’s poll has the narrowest gap of any poll so far during the campaign. It’s the only company that has not changed its methodology since 2015. But up to now they’ve not been especially favourable to Labour.

Their poll was conducted today, after last night’s Question Time special, where Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn faced questions from a live audience. And they found that more people who watched the programme said it made them more likely to vote Labour than Conservative. (Emphasis added)

Help is still needed for Labour’s effort including on 8th June. If you have any time to help in the Brentford and Isleworth constituency then please contact the organiser Jack Price at the Labour Party Office: 020 8995 7289, or call in at 367 Chiswick High Rd, London, W4 4AG. The seat is marginal but Labour is putting in a great effort and there is every reason to think that Ruth Cadbury can hold on to the seat – but that won’t happen by itself.

Labour surges in the polls

The BBC poll of polls shows the trends clearly

Contrary to virtually all “expert” expectations and predictions support for Labour is surging in the opinion polls. The confident predictions of a catastrophe for Labour have turned out not to be worth the paper they were printed on. Polling specialists, leading politicians from the so-called centre through to the right of politics went into the election sure that Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership would turn into a complete disaster for Labour.

But things are not turning out that way. Continue reading “Labour surges in the polls”